In summary 10 year long recession, similar to lost decade in Japan, no world-wide wars, and America the least affected with the dollar being a safe haven. Very interesting interview on the Globe and Mail here.
Archive for February, 2009
It’s good to have another interesting look at the DJIA. I found an inflation adjusted version from the “word out” blog. Interesting to think that there are times when inflation wipes out the gains of the stock market. This blogger mentions the ’70s as a real strange example–the actual wealth in the Dow Jones actually went down despite the index going up. Maybe this stock market thing isn’t as good as we think.
Maybe I’ll find a linear graph to put up there instead of this logarithmic.
One of the initial “winners” of Obama’s stimulus package is the Department of Energy. It looks like they are working hard to get ready to award contracts (see article here). Hopefully it is done correctly. Any time government money is given out there is always a suspicion of the teams/companies that won the contract is actually the best bid, or really the best friends of those distributing the money. We’ll hope that most of the money gets to the right people, and some real innovation comes out of this.
A bit late, but I just wanted to say how much I, and other Ottawans (?) enjoyed Mr. Obama’s surprise visit to the market area. Neat little bit of public relations which may have driven his security forces nuts, but sure put a smile on a few faces in the market especially a 17 year old Beaver Tail vendor. He showed he is trying to keep some “common-man” credibility, and also showed that he is a family man by getting gifts for his daughters. He already had many supporters in Canada, and his recent trip might net him a few more.
It’s like when the Beatles came!
Ottawa is a buzz with anticipation as the newest American president makes his first foreign visit. People have bussed in from around the area, just to be near him (the public will not get a chance to see him) Wow, the expectations for such a short trip!
Well, I do hope he can hammer some sense into anti-Kyoto, pro Oil Harper. Harper needs to see what his Oil Sands is doing to his native Alberta, and that acting unilaterally on climate change just will not do. Let’s hope some of that Obama magic can work up here. Let’s also hope that Harper doesn’t take all the credit for our regulated banking system that Obama envies. If anything, I’m sure he wanted to deregulate it.
Anyhoo, welcome to Ottawa, President Obama!
With the Dow Jones quickly falling, I must look at the graphs that I put up a little while ago in this post. I know this is a completely wild guess but my guess is the bottom (for the next decade) will be around 5500. This is the number I predict as I still have hopes that the top line (black) is the better predictor that sees the trend at 7000, but with a negative overshoot that would see it hit the low of 5500 before major buying occurs. Just a thought–aren’t unqualified predictions fun!